Monday, July 01, 2013

Why Kevin Rudd 2.0 will fail

" ... the anti-Rudd dynamisms from within ... are preordained to pounce once the official election campaign is underway ..."

The recitations that have led to the reinstalment of Rudd 2.0 are well documented; there is no need to report them here. Following his resurrection, the early opinion polls will and have, reflected an expected bounce that puts the Government near level pegging with the opposition. However, hold your horse, for this is as good as it is going to get for the ALP.
For Kevin Rudd the resurrection is most certainly about evening the score, but as the saying goes, “Revenge proves its own executioner.” In exacting justice by regaining the top job, he has done more damage to his own than the very person and cluster he is trying to exact revenge upon. Broadly speaking, own refers to the parliamentary Labor party. In the process, much ill will has been generated over 3 years resulting in a destructive undercurrent of vast proportions that will not blow over. For simplicities sake we can refer to them as Anti-Rudd forces.

The caucus is large and divided along factional lines, those within who voted for Gillard or otherwise are opposed to Kevin Rudd remember exactly who it was that sabotaged the 2010-election campaign. They also know that for all of Julia Gillard’s shortcomings – and there were many – our first female Prime Minister did not deserve to be cast aside in the manner she was. More significantly, they cannot forgive the fact that throughout the 3 years and 3 days of her prime ministership she was, essentially combating two, not one opposition leaders. Of the two, Kevin Rudd was the most damaging. His manoeuvrings were not merely orchestrated but systematic enough to starve Julia Gillard and the Prime Minister’s office of much needed oxygen. Apart from poor policy decisions, unfortunate timings, and remarkably bad advising, the polls went further south than they otherwise would, due to none other than Kevin Rudd.

The ousting of Rudd and the actions of the so-called faceless men were, in the first place, bad enough, but rest assured, Kevin Rudd’s actions since, as executed with much intent were worse, and it is easy to decree why. Think Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine in Victoria, be assured, the former did not leave voluntarily, he was forced to quit after being instructed he had lost the numbers in the party room and would face a spill if he did not. The transition then took place smoothly; however, did Ted Baillieu parade as if the alternative leader after surrendering the leadership? Did he constantly undermine the efforts of the new Premier of Victoria? Think also, Bill Hayden and Bob Hawke, it was no easy transition:
By 1982 it was evident that Fraser was manoeuvring to call an early election. Hawke began mobilising his supporters to challenge Hayden's leadership. On 16 July Hayden narrowly defeated Hawke's challenge in a party ballot, but Hawke continued to plot against Hayden. In December, Labor surprised many pundits by its failure to win the vital Flinders by-election in Victoria, further raising doubts about Hayden's ability to win an election. On 3 February 1983, in a meeting in Brisbane, Hayden's closest supporters told him that he must resign. He reluctantly accepted their advice. Hawke was then elected leader unopposed. Later that morning, unaware of the events in Brisbane, Fraser in Canberra called a snap election for 5 March. Fraser had been well aware of the infighting within Labor, and wished to call an election before the party could replace Hayden with Hawke. He only discovered later that Hayden had resigned just a few hours before the writs were issued. At a press conference, that afternoon Hayden, still chagrined, said "a drover's dog could lead the Labor Party to victory, the way the country is". Labor under Hawke won the 1983 election … “ Source
During the election campaign of 1983, I do not recall Hayden acting like a spoilt child in the face of much personal disappointment and frustration; specifically I do not recall him undermining the efforts of the new leader. Not Kevin Rudd, too much self-importance and ego ensured that his own interests were to be catered for before those of the party, hence Rudd Version 2.0 in June 2013.

Revenge, reprisal and seeking justice where one feels wronged is human nature. As we draw closer to the election date, the undercurrent I referred to earlier, will breach the surface and the damage will begin. While humans have evolved much since prehistoric time’s, our instincts to hurt when seeking justice or feel wronged remain. We are as a species flawed and touchy, easily affronted and enraged where emotions are concerned; payback is often a necessary personal release that transcends wider interests, in this case, the interests of the parliamentary Labor party. Certainly, some of us are more evolved than others, but we all remain human, and Kevin Rudd has incited and spurred and brought to the fore, the aforementioned primordial instincts within his own ranks - those very humans of his party and his narrow-mindedness will now guarantee payback or in the least, more retribution.

Thus, remember this, the anti-Rudd dynamisms from within as referred to above are preordained to pounce once the official election campaign is underway. Exactly how they will execute their actions is subject to speculation, but I would not mind betting that it will not be too dissimilar to Rudd’s actions of 2010 against Julia Gillard involving leaks to riveted journalists. In addition, there will be undermining, betrayals, scheming and ugly power plays. There is a saying, “When you begin a journey of revenge, start by digging two graves: one for your enemy, and one for yourself.”

In the end, this will be a good outcome, not just for the LNP, and not only for those contemplating a career in politics but primarily for all aspiring leaders whatever their calling, for they must understand that dishonesty, treachery and cowardice which leads to sabotaging an organisation cannot be, in the long run, rewarded. The greatest saboteur in its history now heads the party of Chifley, Curtin and Hawke and we, whatever our political and ideological underpinnings must not condone this.

For mine the Gillard –Rudd argy-bargy of the past few years has been demoralising and while traditionally politics is about right, left or centre, sometimes it must simply be about right or wrong.

I predict that the coalition will win the forthcoming election handsomely.


Therefore, it begins:

Chris Uhlmann on the ABC’s, The Drum Friday 5 July, “Labor is sinking and the captains are to blame

Now Rudd has his hand on the tiller again. His language makes it clear that he sees this as simply reassuming what is his by right. And no matter what he said or did behind closed doors to bring down Gillard, we are expected to keep a straight face when he says he won't countenance criticism of her.
The longer he waits to call an election, the more likely it is that the unseemly stench below deck will become obvious.
The level of hatred that has been the hallmark of the Rudd-Gillard years is astonishing and it has not faded. If anything, it's more entrenched. One departing Gillard government staffer asked if I had read the book Perfume, the story of a perfume apprentice in 18th-century France who murders young women to extract their aroma.

"That's Kevin Rudd," he said. "He'd kill you for your scent."

So, as Rudd ponders the election date, he should reflect on how he felt after he had been deposed and wonder if others might wish him harm. The division in his party runs marrow deep.

Blast from the past

The leadership switch may have been refreshing for some, but for many it's an unwelcome deja vu.

Read more:


27 June
ReachTEL Poll: Labor 48, Coalition 52

27 June
Roy Morgan Poll: Labor 49.5, Coalition 50.5

29 June
Galaxy Poll: Labor 48 Coalition 51

8 July
Newspoll: Labor 50, Coalition 50 

14 July
Neilson Poll: Labor 50, Coalition 50 

18 July  - Post FBT changes and asylum seeker deaths at sea ...  
ReachTEL Poll: Labor 49, Coalition 51

22 July - Post PNG Asylum Seeker announcement
Newspoll: Labor 48, Coalition 52

27 July   
Galaxy: Labor 50, Coalition 50

29 July - Post PM Rudd's lightening visit to Afghanistan
Essential: Labor 49, Coalition 51

August 3 - Day prior to election date announcement   
Newspoll: Labor 48, Coalition 52

August 4 - Immediately after PM Rudd announces election date
ReachTEL: Labor 48, Coalition 52

August 5 - 1st official day of election campaign
Essential: Labor 49, Coalition 51

August 6
Roy Morgan: Labor 50, Coalition 50

August 6-8 - 1st poll released after end of Week 1 of campaign
Fairfax Neilson: Labor 48, Coalition 52

August 10
ReachTEL: Labor 47, Coalition 53

August 11
Galaxy: Labor 49, Coalition 51

August 12
Newspoll: Labor 48, Coalition 52

August 12
Roy Morgan: Labor 50, Coalition 50

August 17
Galaxy: Labor 48, Coalition 52

August 18 - Campaign enters week 3, ALP back at SQUARE ONE
Newspoll: Labor 46, Coalition 54

August 19 - You have to wonder about this one
Essential: Labor 50, Coalition 50

August 22 - The slow but steady rate of drift from Labor towards the Coalition continues: Abbott also closing in as preferred PM
Fairfax Neilson: Labor 47, Coalition 53

August 24
Newspoll: Labor 47, Coalition 53

August 24
Roy Morgan: Labor 48.5, Coalition 51.5

August 26
Essential: Labor 50, Coalition 50

August 27
ReachTel: Labor 47, Coalition 53

September 1
Galaxy: Labor 47, Coalition 53

September 1
Newspoll: Labor 46, Coalition 54

September 1
Roy Morgan: Labor 48, Coalition 52

September 2
Essential: Labor 48, Coalition 52

September 4
ReachTel: Labor 48, Coalition 52

September 5
ReachTel: Labor 47, Coalition 53

September 5
Essential: Labor 48, Coalition 52

September 6
Galaxy: Labor 47, Coalition 53

September 6 - This last poll confirms a Labor wipeout
Fairfax Neilson: Labor 46, Coalition 54


John said...

Last time there were 2 main suspects in the leaking, Kevin himself and the retiring Lindsay Tanner who had nothing to lose. With the mass retirement this time any sneaky leakers will be almost guaranteed anonymity!

Otto Marasco American Interests said...

Good point John. I feel you cannot simply bury or forget what has been. KRudd has infuriated many who, in time will get their moment albeit perhaps not in the public domain but through other interested parties. Thanks for coming by the L Party ....