Sunday, February 26, 2012

Australian Politics 2012: A Sad State of Affairs

Newspoll, Neilson, Galaxy, Essential and the Morgan Gallop polls keep humming and each will show further erosion of the ALP vote until such time that Rudd is roused, indeed called upon …


Image courtesy of http://www.theage.com.au/

I was at the local shops this afternoon and overheard a couple of older women discussing Rudd and Gillard and, what they referred to as, “the sad state of Australian politics”. They said much, however it was two lines in particular that caught my attention, “Australian politics has never been here” and “even if Julia wins tomorrow Kevin will not leave her at peace”.

They hit the nail on the head as contrary to anything defenders within the Labor camp might say about the Peacock/Howard rivalries of the eighties and before them, Gorton / McMahon in the seventies nothing compares to the slinging match being played out in Canberra this week.

Australian politics is in new territory with the behaviour, antics of many of the most senior members of the federal Labor caucus having all but ratified the sick state of affairs permeating the party, and not a thing will change when Julia Gillard wins the caucus ballot on Monday.

Moreover, on the question of peace post the ballot, it is not going to happen. Julia will win and Rudd will go to the backbench and the issues will keep bubbling along. Newspoll, Neilson, Galaxy, Essential and the Morgan Gallop polls keep humming and each will show further erosion of the ALP vote until such time that Rudd is roused, indeed called upon, to challenge again and so the soap opera within Labor continues.

A sad state of affairs for what once was a progressive political force in this country even though it is far removed from my own ideals.

My concern is that it leads to vanity and other unhealthy forms of arrogance amongst Liberal party ranks thus, I say to members of the Party of which I am a proud member and especially Tony Abbott and his senior team beware the hubris bug. Labor is imploding but the Australian electorate is fickle and polls can do a 180-degree turn in the blink of an eye.

On tomorrow’s Labor caucus my prediction is: 

Rudd 37, Gillard 66

Worst case for Rudd: 27 – 76
Best case for Rudd: 45 – 58

Either result he loses or does he?

Update

Rudd strategist doesn't rule out another challenge down the track