Monday, February 14, 2011

Getting Candid about a Nuclear Iran

With the world focused on Egypt and the possible rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood there, the new documentary Iranium is a disturbing reminder that Iran remains the truly imminent and terrifying threat to American interests and world peace writes Mark Tapson.

With the Muslim Brotherhood poised to emerge dominant in Egypt, uprisings rocking government foundations in Jordan and Tunisia and Algeria, domestic unrest bubbling up in Syria and Yemen, and Iranian-backed Hezbollah establishing control of Lebanon, the situation in the Middle East is ratcheting up from mere chronic instability to chaos. And looming over it all is the catalyst of a rabidly anti-Western, theocratic regime in Iran, in hot pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Recently I attended a packed screening at Los Angeles’ Luxe Hotel of the new documentary Iranium, about the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran ... Swiftly paced and increasingly gripping, the documentary depicts the rise of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the brutal power it wields behind the scenes; Iran’s expansion into South America and its alliance with Venezuela’s crafty socialist thug Hugo Chavez; its shrewd oil deals with China and Russia; and the apocalyptic insanity of Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly promised to wipe Israel from the face of the earth, and who is quoted in the film claiming that the highest form of art is “the art of martyrdom” — a man for whom the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction is not a deterrent but an incitement. Read the whole piece here
True to form the BBC, goes to great legnths to trash the film Iranium, and to label its director as an Israeli Jew.
The movie Iranium premiered on February 8, and has made a lot of noise since then. First, the Iranian Embassy in Canada tried to prevent it from being shown. Then Islamic thugs threatened the organizers. Then the Iranian Foreign Ministry released a statement saying the documentary shows Western countries will do anything to hurt Iran’s nuclear activities. Quite clearly, the Islamic regime is fearful of this documentary, which vividly reveals the truth of Iran’s three decades of terrorism, human rights violations, and the dangers of nuclear arms in the hands of the radicals ruling Iran.

However, BBC Persia, in its recent coverage of the movie, has topped Iran’s own PR attempts. More here
I cannot think of any peaceful instrument that is likely to dissuade Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions aside perhaps from providing only improvements of a secondary or marginal nature. A multipolar nuclear Middle East is hardly in the West’s and above all, in America’s interests. Looking ahead, any efforts to contain a nuclear Iran would pose significant challenges in light of both the Islamic Republics inherent nature, its continuing support for terrorism and present regional political order. Aside from the military question, the U.S. will be severely tested as it attempts to manage the instability and insecurity fashioned by a nuclear Iran. By fashioned we mean actual security threats such as terror and subversion, limited military operations under the protection of an Iranian nuclear umbrella and lord forbid, the actual use of nuclear weapons. As hideous as this sounds, and notwithstanding major developments beforehand, Iran may soon become part of the international engine room for the design of a new regional architecture in the Persian Gulf and Southern Asia. Unquestionably, any hopes that Operation Iraqi Freedom would result in the U.S. building on its military success by establishing new regional security architecture actually capable of generating stability have long passed.

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