Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Liberals can win in 2010

There is a growing belief among Liberal powerbrokers that the conservatives can win the next federal election due by 2010, writes Malcolm Colless in The Australian. more >>

Several of Kevin Rudd’s more substantive flaws are highlighted; blemishes that give credence to the argument as well as leadership issues that stand in the way of achieving the goal.

But perhaps more importantly, and aside from Malcolm Colless’s line of reasoning, let us not lose site of the fact that the coalition polled better than the headlines would indicative at the last election, finishing with a credible 47.44% of the two-party vote. In the end, the election outcome being decided in a surprising number of close seats that could have gone either way.

All told, Labor won 83 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the Coalition 65 and independents 2 with not less than nine of labor's 83 seats being won by margins of less than 1.5%.

If the Coalition had got over the line in these the seats it would have been split 74-all; given two conservative independents holding the balance of power this would have most likely gave Howard a fifth term.

Labor's narrow wins included Maxine McKew's victory in Bennelong (1.4%), the Victorian seats of Corangamite (0.85%) Deakin (1.41%), and three seats won by extraordinarily tight margins, Robertson NSW (0.11%), Flynn QLD (0.16%) and Solomon NT (0.19%).

Liberal powerbrokers can take comfort from knowing that with just several hundred extra votes in the right places, the Coalition would have narrowed Labor’s majority to a mere 10 seats and with less than 10,000 additional votes in the correct places, it could have won.

1 comment:

Aurora said...

Otto, that's a really heartening perspective. It feels like Labor is in for the long haul, but hopefully the cracks will continue to widen as the public sees what most of the media so desperately wants to cover up about Kruddistan.